"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

The market and economic backdrop has changed noticeably since the RBNZ last cut interest rates in March.  As a result there is much less urgency to cut the official cash rate (OCR) at the upcoming 9 June meeting.  The market is pricing a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut.  However, looking further ahead, in our view a continued absence of inflation pressures still points to low interest rates for an extended period. Download the PDF to read more.