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The influence of Europe on Global yields
by Cathryn Hughes - Thursday, 15 September 2016, 11:45 AM

Over the past two years, the threat of deflation in Europe has prompted a wave of unconventional measures from the European Central Bank (ECB).  This has helped push global yields to record lows and supported global credit and equity markets.

With oil prices recovering from their early 2016 lows, headline European inflation looks set to briefly return to the ECB's 2% target at the beginning of 2017.  However, looking through the volatility, underlying inflation measures in Europe still look weak.   read more.......


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Lessons from unconventional monetary policy for New Zealand
by Cathryn Hughes - Tuesday, 30 August 2016, 4:59 PM

Over the weekend, central bankers from around the world met at Jackson Hole in Wyoming to discuss unconventional monetary policy and lessons for the future.  Closer to home the RBNZ has itself moved closer to unchartered territory, cutting the OCR to an all time low of 2.00% in August, projecting further reductions, and publishing two scenarios that would push the OCR to around 1.00%  read more  .....



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Assertive RBNZ may finally take froth off overheating house prices
by Cathryn Hughes - Wednesday, 20 July 2016, 4:17 PM


We believe the Reserve Bank's announcement yesterday to further constrain bank lending to property investors is material.  It signals a much more assertive approach to the risks they believe mortgage lending creates within the banking sector.  In our view, the announcement helps cement expectations for further cuts in the Official Cash Rate, and opens the way for a more substantial fall in the NZ Dollar.  read more....